A Game: Setting High Expectations for Barack in South Carolina

AMY CHOZICK writes:

COLUMBIA, S.C. Mr. Obama has been leading rival Sen. Hillary Clinton in polls by as much as 16 percentage points over the past week. He fares particularly well among African-American voters, who make up half of all registered Democrats in the state. By a 5 to 1 margin, they said they would vote for Mr. Obama over Mrs. Clinton.

This may seem like good news for Mr. Obama, who scored a first-place finish in the Iowa caucus but finished second to Mrs. Clinton in New Hampshire and Nevada. But with expectations set so high, political pundits say the Illinois senator faces a dilemma: He will have to win by a double-digit margin in order for voters nationwide to perceive South Carolina as a real victory.

Since when is a victory not a real victory? I am beginning to strongly suspect that any win Barack gains is going to be downplayed across the board.

This struggle to meet expectations has been heightened by the Clinton campaign. For the past week, campaign officials have been publicly lowering expectations in South Carolina while reaching out to the nearly two dozen states that will hold primaries on "Super Tuesday," Feb. 5. Mrs. Clinton spent much of the week campaigning in California, Arizona, New Jersey and New York.


After days of criticizing Mrs. Clinton for ignoring the Palmetto State, the Obama campaign seemed to grasp how this expectations game was playing out. It released a memo Wednesday titled "Hillary Clinton going all out to win in South Carolina" that claims she has invested seven months of on-the-ground efforts and more than $200,000 in TV advertising in South Carolina.

The Spat Over Race: Barack and Hillary

RON FOURNIER writes:

As for Obama and Clinton, racially tinged remarks were slipped into their stump speeches like so many stale bread crumbs. On Friday, the New York senator praised New York Rep. Charles Rangel as a man who rise to power without "leapfrogging" — a term that any thinking member of her predominantly black audience understood to apply to the precocious Obama.

The Illinois senator, following a strategic template that his top adviser, David Axelrod, has deployed to elect other young black politicians, waited until as late as possible in the campaign to start overtly identifying with the black community. He did so in South Carolina, where blacks make up half or more of the Democratic electorate.

"I need you to grab Cousin Pookie to vote," Obama said, playfully breaking out the black vernacular in Kingstree, S.C., on Thursday. "I need you to get Ray-Ray to vote."

David Smith, 36, a black voter backing Obama, shook his head in disgust as he discussed the spat over race while awaiting for Obama to speak in Sumpter, S.C.

"They both ought to knock it off," he said of Obama and Clinton. "It's not becoming of a past or future president."

A black man who identified himself as a pastor told Bill Clinton at an event in Kingstree, S.C., that black voters should rally behind his wife to keep Republicans out of the White House. Of white Americans, he said: "They're not ready for a black president."

Several black audience members nodded and said, "That's right."

"I have to tell you I hope you're not right," Bill Clinton responded.

Ahead Nationally: John McCain and Hillary Clinton

Mark Murray, Deputy political director of NBC News reports:

BOCA RATON, Fla. - Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama are leading in their respective parties' upcoming primaries, according to two new state surveys (in Florida).

But a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that their rivals — John McCain and Hillary Clinton — are ahead nationally, with Clinton leading Obama by 15 points and with McCain moving from fourth to first in one month.

Barack Obama Takes Commanding Lead in South Carolina Democratic Primary

Mike Huckabee: "The Momentum Is Back"

APRIL CASTRO writes:

NAVASOTA, Texas - After a disappointing second place showing in the South Carolina Republican primary, Mike Huckabee hoped a fundraiser at the ranch of television star Chuck Norris Sunday would be the start of a momentum shift in his favor.

"Starting today, we reset the clock," Huckabee said. "I woke up this morning and I thought 'the momentum is back.'"

Huckabee needed to win South Carolina to validate his win in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. Instead, he came in second to John McCain, who solidified a shaky GOP front-runner status that he first claimed after winning the New Hampshire primary Jan. 8.

As the first Southern primary, South Carolina was supposed to be friendly territory for Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister.

"We obviously wanted to win and we really thought we would win," he said. "The fact of Fred Thompson's being in the race took some votes that we would have most likely had."

Huckabee also blamed late snowfall in parts of upstate South Carolina.

"The snow not only froze the streets of the Greenville-Spartanburg area, the votes kinda stopped once it started snowing," he said. "That was an area we were looking forward to having a significant vote margin."

Mike Huckabee's Concession Speech in Columbia, South Carolina

The Republican Party Presidential Race: A Kaleidoscope

Glen Johnson writes:

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - The Republican presidential race, it appears, has taken on the qualities of a kaleidoscope.

Every primary or caucus, the winner looks inside and sees something else, underscoring the volatile nature of a 2008 nominating contest that is still moving toward clarity.

Leading contenders are emerging, hangers-on are dropping away and in less than 10 days, the viability of Rudy Giuliani's unconventional political strategy will be judged in plain view.

The 57 delegates at stake in Florida, the virtual dead heat at the start of the campaign's final act and the momentum the winner could gain heading into the 20-plus contests being held Feb. 5 have the potential to turn Florida's Jan. 29 primary into the make-or-break contest of the race.

John McCain glided in, following up his win in the New Hampshire primary with another big-ticket victory Saturday in the South Carolina primary. To the Arizona senator, it was sweet justice, for it was South Carolina where George W. Bush pummeled him into submission in 2000 after McCain had similarly won the New Hampshire primary.

"It took us awhile, but what's eight years among friends?" McCain joked at his victory party.

Obama Takes One More Nevada Delegate than Clinton

WASHINGTON - Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama split the spoils in the Nevada caucuses in a race marred by late charges of dirty politics...Clinton captured the popular vote Saturday, but Obama edged her out for national convention delegates at stake, taking 13 to her 12.

John McCain Takes South Carolina: The First in the South Primary

A close race between John McCain and Mike Huckabee, with McCain taking the low country and Huckabee taking the upstate...During his speech tonight, McCain asked, "What's 8 years between friends?"

South Carolina Republican Primary Results Illustrated

Nevada Election Results Illustrated

South Carolina Republican Primary Results with 65% Reporting

John McCain 98,585 34.0%
Mike Huckabee 84,576 29.1%
Fred D. Thompson 45,269 15.6%
Mitt Romney 44,422 15.3%
Ron Paul 10,409 3.6%
Rudolph W. Giuliani 6,213 2.1%
Duncan Hunter 663 0.2%
Tom Tancredo 60 0.0%
Others 117 0.0%
65% reporting | Updated 9:02 PM ET NY Times

South Carolina Republican Primary Results with 43% Reporting

McCain 33%
Huckabee 30%
Thompson 16%
Romney 15%
Paul 4%
Giuliani 2%


43% reporting

South Carolina Republican Primary Results with 32% Reporting

McCain 35%
Huckabee 29%
Thompson 15%
Romney 15%
Paul 4%
Giuliani 2%

32% reporting

South Carolina Republican Primary Results at 8 pm EST

McCain 35%
Huckabee 28%
Romney 16%
Thompson 13%
Paul 4%
Guiliani 3%

South Carolina Republican Primary Results with 1% Reporting

McCain 38%
Huckabee 23%
Romney 19%
Thompson 12%
Giuliani 5%
Paul 4 %

1% reporting

Day Before South Carolina Democratic Primary: Look for Bill Clinton to Get Angry

John Dickerson in SLATE writes:

Hillary Clinton has won the Nevada caucus, which means a few things about the Democratic race are now coming into focus. For example, mark on your calendar Jan. 25 for an outburst by Bill Clinton somewhere in South Carolina. He has launched a tirade the day before each of his wife's victories in Nevada and New Hampshire, claiming the process was unfairly stacked against her. If this keeps up, he's going to require a stretcher by the last primary in Oregon come May.

Bill Clinton was so angry because it got ugly at the end in Nevada. Democrats may have cooled down their flash war over race and gender earlier this week, but by the time the vote took place Saturday, each of the two top campaigns was flinging some very ugly charges about the other.

Comparisons Among Republican Candidates in South Carolina

South Carolina: A Key Republican Primary

The Voice of America is among the world’s most trusted sources of news and information.

Republican leaders in South Carolina say Saturday's vote is a key step in the process to select the party's presidential candidate for the November elections. Since former President Ronald Reagan won the South Carolina primary on his way to victory in the 1980 general election, no Republican candidate has captured the White House without winning the state's primary.

Recent opinion polls show the top two candidates are Senator John McCain and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Both held numerous campaign events across the state ahead of the vote.

Political Polls: South Carolina Democratic and Republican Primaries

Obama leading Democratic in South Carolina; McCain leading Republican.